Edited by: Tecnológico Superior Corporativo
Edwards Deming
January - March Vol. 8 - 1 - 2024
https://revista-edwardsdeming.com/index.php/es
e-ISSN: 2576-0971
Received: July 04, 2023
Approved: October 11, 2023
Page 14-30
Susceptibility to forest fires in the area, Las
Mercedes, Sancán, Cantón Jipijapa.
Estrategia de enseñanza virtual para el aprendizaje en línea
de la asignatura Emprendimiento y Gestión en el bachillerato
Armando Leonardo Orlando
Villacreses*
.
Luisa Anabel Palacios López
*
ABSTRACT
Forest fires are currently an environmental and
socioeconomic problem, the frequency and area affected
by these events are attributed to intrinsic factors such as
the natural characteristics of an ecosystem and extrinsic
factors such as indiscriminate agricultural burning, which
are developed in areas exposed to this threat. For this
reason, our study aims to establish the areas with the
highest incidence and susceptibility to forest fires in the
area of Las Mercedes, Sancán, canton Jipijapa. The analysis
is based on data collected from geospatial sources, in which
the methodology proposed in Colombia by the Institute of
Hydrology, Meteorology and Environmental Studies
(IDEAM) was taken as a reference. The results show that
the intrinsic and extrinsic characteristics of this ecosystem
such as temperature, precipitation, types of plant fuels,
topography and accessibility influence the probability of a
fire originating in the study area, thus concluding that Las
Mercedes has a very high degree of susceptibility to the
occurrence of fires, information that serves as a basis for
* Engineer. Master's Program in
Environmental Management, Graduate
Institute, Universidad Estatal del Sur de
Manabí. orlando-
armando@unesum.edu.ec
https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1407-2422
* Engineer. Master's degree. Master's
Program in Environmental Management,
Graduate Institute, Universidad Estatal del
Sur de Manabí.
luisa.palacios@unesum.edu.ec
https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9257-7557
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decision-making in risk management, risk reduction and
territorial planning.
RESUMEN
Los incendios forestales en la actualidad, son un problema
ambiental y socioeconómico, la frecuencia y área afectada
por estos eventos se atribuyen a factores intrínsecos como
las características naturales de un ecosistema y factores
extrínsecos como la quema agrícola indiscriminada la
misma que se desarrollan en zonas expuestas a esta
amenaza. Por esta razón nuestro estudio tiene como
objetivo establecer, las zonas con mayor incidencia y
susceptibilidad a los incendios forestales en el recinto las
Mercedes, comuna Sancán, cantón Jipijapa. El análisis se
basa en datos recopilados de fuentes geoespaciales, en la
cual se tomó de manera referencial la metodología
planteada en Colombia por el Instituto de Hidrología,
Meteorología y Estudios Ambientales (IDEAM). Los
resultados manifiestan que las características intrínsecas y
extrínsecas de este ecosistema tales como temperatura,
precipitación, tipos de combustibles vegetales, topografía y
accesibilidad influyen en la probabilidad de que se origine
un incendio en la zona de estudio, concluyendo de esta
manera que en el recinto las Mercedes tiene un grado de
susceptibilidad muy alta a la ocurrencia de incendios,
información que sirve como base para la toma de
decisiones en la gestión y reducción de riesgos y la
planificación territorial.
Palabras clace: riesgos, amenaza, prevención,
fuegoBaccalaureate.
INTRODUCTION
Forests are the product of a balance between several ecological factors, including fire,
which plays an important role in regulating plant succession (Morales, 2017)However,
uncontrolled fire can pose a significant risk to ecosystems, biodiversity and local
communities worldwide, due to loss of natural habitats, destruction of forests and
vegetation, greenhouse gas releases, soil degradation and risks to human health.
Particularly in areas where vegetation and natural resources are abundant, it is critical
to understand the susceptibility to wildfires in order to implement preventive measures
and mitigate the associated risks.
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In the latter part of the 20th century, there have been significant changes in the
relationship between human activity and fires, which has led to a worrying situation in
tropical rainforests and cloud forests. These regions, which used to be unaffected by
large fires, are now being devastated by uncontrolled fires. According to the Committee
on Forestry (Agency et al., 2006)more than 350 million hectares of forest were burned
worldwide up to the year 2000. In Latin America and the Caribbean, between 2009 and
2019, it is estimated that around 33 million hectares of land are affected annually due to
forest fires (Forestry et al., 2006). (Forestal et al., 2006)
In Ecuador, from the end of 2019 to 2021, according to information provided by the
National Risk and Emergency Management Service (Servicio Nacional de Gestión de
Riesgos y Emergencias) as per (Villacís Guamán et al., 2022)(Villacís Guamán et al.,
2022), about 51,600 hectares of forests were affected. Among the provinces that
reported the highest number of fires were Guayas with 138, Loja with 132, Santa Elena
with 120, Manabí with 107 and Azuay with 98 events each. As of the aforementioned
date, a total of 1,406 forest fires had been recorded. In 2022, a total of 994 forest fires
have been reported, causing the loss of approximately 5,060.94 hectares of vegetation
cover.
According to the Development and Land Use Plan of the Jipijapa canton, the protective
forests of Sancán, where the study area is located, and the Montecristi hill, covering an
area of 4,947 hectares, are of utmost importance for conservation due to their natural
wealth and ecological relevance. However, due to the intense human activity in the area
and the characteristics of the forest, there is a high risk of forest fires. According to
reports from the control authorities, a total of 23 forest fires have been recorded in the
study area during the last 5 years.
Principle of the form
Therefore, it is vitally important to conduct a comprehensive analysis to understand the
factors that contribute to this vulnerability in order to develop effective prevention and
mitigation strategies. In this sense, the zoning of risk areas becomes essential, as it acts
as an essential tool to conserve ecosystems and reduce the incidence of disastrous
events. The results of this study have provided a solid base of scientific knowledge to
make decisions in the management and prevention of forest fires in the area of Las
Mercedes, establishing the areas susceptible to forest fires in the area of Las Mercedes,
Sancán commune, Jipijapa canton, which is expected to provide reference in future
studies and projects focused on the conservation and protection of natural resources in
this specific area.
MATERIALS AND METHODS
The precinct Las Mercedes, located north of the canton Jipijapa, covers an area of 14.10
km2. It is bordered to the north by the Sancan commune, to the south by the cantonal
capital, to the east by the Secal precinct and to the west by the Santa Rosa precinct. The
urban area is easily accessible and is surrounded by several intermittent streams, its
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e-ISSN: 2576-0971
altitudes range between 240 meters above sea level and 508 meters above sea level,
with the highest elevation at Cuchilla de Pacheco.
Figure 1. Study area, ESRI satellite 2022 raster map.
Prepared by Wajarai (2023)
For the development of this research, the following steps were taken
1. Planimetry of the study area
• A planimetric survey of the study area was carried out due to the lack of
a previous adequate delimitation.
2. Spatial analysis with Arcmap.
• A spatial analysis was carried out using the Arcmap program to process
the data and obtain relevant information about the area.
3. Use of 97 geographic points.
• Ninety-seven geographic points were used to perform the specific
analysis. These points were strategically selected to obtain an adequate
representation of the study area.
4. UTM-WGS17 coordinate register.
• For each of the 97 geographic points, UTM-WGS17 coordinates were
recorded, which are a geospatial reference system used to identify the
precise location of each point in the study.
Considering that the referent is a fundamental part to carry out the survey and analysis
of geospatial data in the research, providing us with accurate and relevant information
for the study of the specific area.
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e-ISSN: 2576-0971
The development of the project was carried out using the methodology of the Institute
of Hydrology, Meteorology and Environmental Studies of Colombia (IDEAM, 2011).
(IDEAM, 2011)This methodology takes into account different risk factors, such as
history, climate, vegetation, topography and access. To evaluate the influence of these
elements on susceptibility to forest fires, precise statistical analyses were performed.
The study of historical forest fires considered the analysis of their annual distribution in
the period between 2010 and 2021. The data used for this analysis were obtained from
the logs of the Fire Department of Jipijapa canton, which have records available from
2010 onwards. Using the relationship between fires and years, the frequency index was
calculated in order to determine the probability of a forest fire occurring in the area.
The equation used for this calculation is as follows
Equation 1.
𝐹
!
=
1
𝑎
%𝑛𝑖
"
#
𝐹
!
=
1
12
%48
#$
#
Where Fi: Fire frequency; a: Number of years; ni: Number of fires in each year.
To determine the climatic variable, precipitation and temperature records were taken
into consideration from the NASA POWER database as well as from the Sancán
pluviometric station from the meteorological yearbooks of the National Institute of
Meteorology and Hydrology (INAMHI) with a record for the period 2000-2021.
The vegetation factor was established taking into account the type of vegetation present,
the duration of the predominant fuels and the total amount of fuel in the evaluated area.
Subsequently, the coverages were classified according to the dominant fuel, taking into
account the physiognomy of each of the vegetation units presented in the vegetation
cover map, and then each of the fuel groups, was characterized by the duration and total
fuel load (MAE, 2015)
The topographic analysis was carried out considering the relief by using the
geomorphological map included in the project "Generation of Geoinformation for Land
Management at National Level Scale 1:25000", IGM. On the other hand, the evaluation
of accessibility, also known as road density, was based on the road map provided by the
Ministry of Transportation and Public Works, as well as the project "Generation of
Geoinformation for the Management of the National Territory Scale 1:25000, Basic Data
and Infrastructure". (Nacional et al., 2020)
RESULTS
Historical Factor
The historical occurrences identified in the study area lead us to analyze the probability
of recurrence of forest fires in areas where they have been previously recorded. In the
specific case of the Las Mercedes precinct, during the period from 2010 to 2021, a total
of 48 forest fires were reported. It was observed that the highest percentages of
occurrence were concentrated in the year 2021, resulting in an annual frequency of 3.95
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fires. According to the Jipijapa Fire Department report, the cause of all these fires is
related to activities associated with agricultural factors such as irresponsible burning to
clear the area of underbrush, prepare the land for cultivation or regenerate pastures.
Table 1. Distribution of fire occurrences across years in the Las Mercedes precinct (2010-
2021).
Climate factor
Climate plays an essential role in
the occurrence and spread of
forest fires, as it influences the
duration and severity of dry
and hot seasons in a specific
region. Temperature,
precipitation, humidity and wind speed are just some of the climatic factors that can
affect the susceptibility of a given area to experience this type of event.
In general terms, the climate of Las Mercedes is tropical megathermal dry, with
precipitation ranging between 250 and 450 mm per year. Temperatures vary between
24 and 29 ºC, and relative humidity reaches approximately 60%. The average wind speed
in Jipijapa presents notable seasonal changes throughout the year. The windiest season
extends for 7.8 months, from May 20 to January 14, with average speeds of more than
13.4 kilometers per hour. October is the windiest month in Jipijapa, with winds blowing
at an average speed of 16.9 kilometers per hour.
Precipitation
An analysis of the periods of higher and lower rainfall and their respective variations is
presented, thus determining the periods of drought and the state of the fuels.
Table 2 (Figure 2) shows the annual and monthly averages of precipitation during the
years 2000 to 2021, which records an average annual precipitation of 31 mm and the
sum on average was 371.5 mm, while the maximum accumulated annual precipitation
was recorded with a value of 768.3 mm in 2002 and a minimum of 148.7 in 2020; The
Years
Fires
(No.)
(%)
2010
2
4,2
2011
1
2,1
2012
5
10,4
2013
5
10,4
2014
6
12,5
2015
4
8,3
2016
1
2,1
2017
2
4,2
2018
1
2,1
2019
6
12,5
2020
7
14,6
2021
8
16,7
Totals
48
100
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years 2020 and 2021 are the years with the lowest precipitation averages, 12.4 and 13.3,
the same years that show in Table 1 the increase of fires in the area, this can be attributed
to the decrease in precipitation during those years in which the fuels are at low humidity
levels and favor fire behavior.
Table 2. Precipitation for the period 2000 to 2021
Precipitation
Year
Jan
Feb
Sea
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
sum
Pre.
Prome
2000
37
63,8
101
164
84,3
7,7
1,9
0
1,1
0
2,3
0
462,9
38,6
2001
254
60,8
166
109
30,7
0,8
2,5
2,2
0
0
0,6
4
630,2
52,5
2002
44,7
221
257
156
22,7
0,3
1,9
0,8
0,8
3,6
13,7
45,3
768,3
64,0
2003
65,9
195
38
59,3
32
0,5
0,2
1,7
0
0,6
3,1
16,5
412,5
34,4
2004
17,4
78,4
77,8
7,2
17,9
1,6
3,1
0,2
1,9
2,8
0,2
0,5
209
17,4
2005
13,9
88,8
66,6
160
0,3
0,9
0,4
0,2
0
0
0
16,6
347,6
29,0
2006
50,5
164
79,2
22,7
5,6
0
0
2,8
1,7
0
10,6
10,9
347,6
29,0
2007
28,3
16,1
49,9
116
9,4
0,2
5,4
1,3
0
0
0,3
18,5
244,9
20,4
2008
150
86,4
193
33,4
11,7
5,2
0,4
0,2
3,2
2,2
0,8
0
486,6
40,6
2009
122
84,2
46,2
38,1
12,8
0,8
0
0,9
0
0
0
9,2
314
26,2
2010
65
195
38
59,3
32
0,5
0,2
1,7
0
0,6
3,1
16,5
411,6
34,3
2011
17,4
78,4
77,8
7,2
17,9
1,6
3,1
0,2
1,9
2,8
0,2
0,5
209
17,4
2012
13,4
88,8
66,6
160
0,2
0,9
0,3
0,2
0
0
0
16,6
346,9
28,9
2013
50,6
164
79,2
22,7
5,6
0
0,3
2,8
1,7
0
10,6
10,9
348
29,0
2014
27,3
16,1
49,9
116
9,4
0,2
5,4
1,3
0,2
0
0
18,5
243,8
20,3
2015
43,7
221
257
156
22,7
0,3
1,9
0,8
0,8
3,6
13,7
45,3
767,3
63,9
2016
65
195
38
59,3
32
0,5
0,2
1,7
0
0,6
3,1
16,5
411,6
34,3
2017
17,4
78,4
77,8
7,2
17,9
1,6
3,1
0,2
1,9
2,8
0,2
0,5
209
17,4
2018
12,9
88,8
66,6
160
0,3
0,9
0,4
0,2
0
0
0
16,6
346,6
28,9
2019
49,5
164
79,2
22,7
5,6
0
0
2,8
1,7
0
10,6
10,9
346,6
28,9
2020
28,3
16,1
49,9
19,5
9,4
0
5,4
1,3
0
0
0,3
18,5
148,7
12,4
2021
13,1
86,4
3
33,4
12
5,2
0,4
0,2
3,2
2,2
0,8
0
159,9
13,3
Media
54
111
89
76,7
17,8
1,35
1,66
1,08
0,91
0,99
3,37
13,3
371,5
31,0
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Figure 2. Precipitation behavior in the period 2000 to 2021 in Las Mercedes.
Temperature
Table 3 represents the historical record of the average annual temperature during the
period 2000 to 2021 with an average of 24.3 ºC. In 2015, 25.5°C was recorded,
identifying it as the year with a higher temperature than the average (Figure 3); among
the monthly averages, February and March are the months with the highest temperature,
considering that the temperature in the coastal zone increases during these months
(Figure 4).
Table 3. Average temperature for the period 2000 to 2021.
Temperature
Year
Jan
Feb
Sea
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
2000
24,4
24,3
24,0
24,3
22,9
22,5
22,2
22,5
22,5
23,6
23,1
24,4
23,4
2001
24,4
24,6
24,6
24,1
22,8
22,4
22,9
23,2
22,6
22,8
23,4
24,2
23,5
2002
25,1
24,9
24,9
24,3
24,1
23,6
23,7
24,0
24,0
24,6
24,9
25,4
24,5
2003
25,3
25,5
25,7
25,6
25,2
23,7
23,2
24,2
23,0
24,5
24,5
24,7
24,6
2004
24,7
25,6
24,9
25,1
24,7
23,7
23,0
23,3
23,6
24,3
24,4
24,7
24,3
2005
25,7
25,7
25,4
26,6
24,8
23,5
23,4
23,1
23,0
22,4
23,4
24,4
24,3
2006
25,4
25,4
25,1
24,9
24,6
23,9
23,8
23,9
23,9
24,2
24,1
24,9
24,5
2007
25,5
26,1
25,9
26,0
25,4
24,6
23,7
22,6
22,8
22,6
23,3
23,7
24,3
54
111,3
89,1
76,7
17,8
1,35
1,66
1,08
0,91 0,99
3,37
13,3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Ene Feb Mar Abr May Jun Jul Ago Sep Oct Nov Dic
mm
Precipitation
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2008
24,3
24,4
24,5
24,1
23,2
23,4
24,0
23,7
23,8
23,3
23,5
24,4
23,9
2009
24,9
24,9
25,0
25,3
25,3
24,8
24,4
24,4
23,5
23,8
24,2
25,3
24,6
2010
25,3
25,9
25,7
25,7
25
24
23,3
23
23
22,9
22,9
23,5
24,2
2011
24,6
25,3
25,5
24,9
25,2
24,4
24,4
23,5
22,9
22,5
22,8
24,2
24,2
2012
24,7
24,9
25,1
24,9
24,7
24,2
23,3
23,1
23,4
23,4
23,8
24,6
24,2
2013
25
25
24,9
24,2
24,7
23,6
23
23
23,4
23,4
23,8
24,3
24,0
2014
25,2
25,2
25,7
26
23,2
25,1
24,7
24,1
23,5
24,2
24
24,7
24,6
2015
25,1
25,5
26
26,1
25,3
26
25,5
24,6
25,1
25
25
26,5
25,5
2016
26
26,2
26,3
25,7
26,2
25,2
24,5
23,9
24
23,3
23,1
24,8
24,9
2017
25,4
25,8
26
25,3
24,9
24,1
23,7
23,5
23,7
23,7
23,3
24,2
24,5
2018
25
25,2
24,9
24,9
25
23,6
23,8
23,8
23,7
23,4
24,4
24,6
24,4
2019
24,4
24,8
25
24,3
23,3
23,4
23,9
23,6
23,4
23,1
23,2
24,2
23,9
2020
24,9
25
25
25
24,9
24,5
24,1
24,1
23,2
23,6
23,9
25
24,4
2021
25
25
24,9
24,9
25
23
23,8
23,8
23
23,4
24
24,6
24,2
Media
25,0
25,2
25,2
25,1
24,6
24,0
23,7
23,6
23,4
23,5
23,8
24,6
24,3
Temperature of the period from 2000 to 2021 (INAMHI, 2022)
Figure 3. Annual temperature behavior in Las Mercedes.
Figure 4. Monthly behavior of the temperature in Las Mercedes from 2000 to 2021.
23,4
23,5
24,5
24,6
24,3
24,3
24,5
24,3
23,9
24,6
24,2 24,2
24,2
24,0
24,6
25,5
24,9
24,5
24,4
23,9
24,4
24,2
22,0
22,5
23,0
23,5
24,0
24,5
25,0
25,5
26,0
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
ºC
temperature
25,0
25,2 25,2
25,1
24,6
24,0
23,7
23,6
23,4
23,5
23,8
24,6
22,0
23,0
24,0
25,0
26,0
Ene Feb Mar Abr May Jun Jul Ago Sep Oct Nov Dic
ºC
Temperature
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During the years 2020 and 2021, there has been a notable decrease in precipitation
(Figure 5) and a considerable increase in temperature, which has resulted in drought
conditions. The lack of rainfall has generated a significant increase in average and
maximum temperatures, exceeding the average temperature. The combination of high
temperatures and low rainfall considerably increases the likelihood of fires in the area
because the vegetation fuels will be drier and with low levels of humidity.
Figure 5. Precipitation - mean temperature - maximum temperature
Vegetation
The regions that have a higher density of trees, shrubs, grasses and other plant elements
are those that show a high degree of vulnerability and predisposition to forest fires, in
this sense the arboreal composition of the forest has 281 individuals, 22 species and 21
genera, in which 11 families are classified, of which the most representative is the
Fabaceae family. The highest concentration of individuals was recorded in the arboreal
stratum with 234 trees (Ikhsanto, 2020). (Ikhsanto, 2020)
Table 4. Name of the forest species that inhabit the Las Mercedes site.
NO.
Scientific name
Common name
1
Ximenia americana L.
Alabaricoque
2
Acnitus arborencens (L)Schltdl
Guitite
3
Alvizia multiflora (Kunth) Barneby and J.W.
Grimes
Angolo
4
Citharexylum Chartaceum Madenke
Broadleaf
5
Colicodendron scabridum (Kunth) Seem
Sapote
6
Cordia lute Lam
Muyuyo
7
Croton rivinifolius Kunth
Croton
8
Cynophalla didymobobotrys (Ruiz and Pav. Ex
DC) Cornejo
Senna
9
Eriotheca ruizii (K. Schum) A. Robyns
Pita stick or Borracho
10
Leucaena Tricholdes (Jacq.) Benth
Sleepy
0,0
10,0
20,0
30,0
40,0
50,0
60,0
70,0
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
mm
Pre. Prome
Tem Media
Tem Max
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11
Machaerium Millei Standl
Screw pole
12
Mimosa pigra L
The pink sleepyhead
13
Muntinguia Calabura L
Cayenne cherry
14
Phyllanthus graveolens (Kunth) Mart
Horsetail
15
Piscidia carthagenensis Jacq.
Jamaica flower
16
Prosopis Padilla (Humb and Bonpl.ex Willd)
Kunth
Algarrobo
17
Saptum aff. Marmieri Huber
Knife
18
Senna Mollissima (Humb. And Bonpl. Ex Willd.)
H.S. Irwin and Barneby
Yellow carob
19
Varionia macrocephala Desv
Varronia
20
Vasconcellea microcarpa (Jacq) A.DC.
Papayuela
21
Vasconcellea parviflora A.DC
Babaco
22
Zizphus thyrsiflora Benth
Red sapote
Source Prepared by (Orlando Villacreses, 2020)adapted from (Ikhsanto, 2020)
Relief
In the Las Mercedes area, there are two types of relief: high hilly relief and medium hilly
relief. The high hilly relief is characterized by sharp peaks that are linked to straight
slopes ranging between 250 and 500 meters in length. These units show steep slopes
(40-70%) at altitudes above 400 meters above sea level (masl). However, medium to
steep slopes (25-40%) are also found in smaller proportions.
The medium hilly relief is located below 400 and 300 meters above sea level, presenting
rounded summits associated with convex slopes mostly, although mixed slopes are also
present, with a length exceeding 250 m characterized by medium slopes (12-25 %) and
medium to steep slopes (25-40 %). (Orlando Villacreses, 2020)
When analyzing terrain slopes using QGIS tools, it can be seen in Figure 6 the
classification into three main categories: low slopes range from 0 to 3.0 degrees, while
medium slopes are in the range of 3.0 to 5.0 degrees, finally, high slopes are between
5.0 to >6.0 degrees.
Figure 6. Slope Classification in Las Mercedes
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Accessibility
Accessibility is considered part of the threat due to the probability that the population
could reach the forested areas of the site to generate fire outbreaks.
Based on the difficult access to the different hedges from the main or secondary roads
in the precinct, in this context, two access options are presented, the first is to go to
the Sancán road located at a distance of 200m from the vegetation cover to the main
road, while the second option is the secondary road that goes to Chade.
Figure 7. Map of accessibility to the Las Mercedes site
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Considering all of the above factors, a susceptibility map was drawn up showing that
most of the study area was classified as very highly susceptible (Figure 8), covering an
area of 719 ha, equivalent to 49% of the study area.
Table 5. Variables for the elaboration of the forest fire susceptibility map in Las Mercedes.
Variable
Value
IDEAM Range
Rating
Susceptibility
Average annual
precipitation
447.4 mm
Aggregate
0 - 500 mm
5
Ver y high
Average annual
temperature
24,4 °C
Warm
>24°C
5
Ver y high
Historical
occurrence
# fire
48
Frequency
4
4
High
Vegetat i on
susceptibility
vegetative
cover
Fragmented forest
4
High
Earrings
5-6 degrees
6
12-25%
25 - 75%
3
4
3
Moderate
High
Accessibility
2000 m
1000 - 2000 m
2
Moderate
Source: IDEAM modified to the result of the Las Mercedes study object.
Figure 8. Location of the area, fire probability significance.
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DISCUSSION
The analysis of historical data on fire records reveals the causes of fires, the places where
they occur most frequently and the periods of the year in which they are most likely to
occur. (Ministry of Environment - Panama, 2015), In the Las Mercedes compound during
the years 2010 -2021 according to the reports 48 occurrences were recorded, with a
high rate between the years 2020 and 2021, and a frequency rate of 3.95 annual fires,
according to,(IDEAM, 2011), this value is considered a high threat due to the occurrence
of fires, with respect to this recurrent frequency of fires in this enclosure. (Montiel,
2013)(Montiel, 2013) indicates that this may be associated with the fact that the fire
regime, expressed in patterns of occurrence and frequency, has evolved throughout
history according to the succession of various environmental changes and
socioeconomic and political transformations that have determined a change in the risk
of ignition, in the modes of spread and in the territorial and social vulnerability to fires.
Climatic Factor
The climate directly influences the humidity and the amount of fuel available for easy
ignition and is directly influenced by precipitation and ambient temperature in this way
the data in the study area recorded a value of 371.5 mm although in 2002 it presented
768.3 mm due to torrential rains at the national level causing landslides, and in 2015 with
a record of 767.3 because it presented the strongest season of the El Niño phenomenon.
(INAMHI, 2016). The temperature factor became a value of 24.3°C reflecting an increase
in 2015 due to the fact that it was officially considered the hottest year in history up to
that time affecting especially Central America, the northern half of South America, the
northern, southern and eastern part of Europe, western Asia, as well as large areas of
the northeastern and central Equatorial Pacific (ANNUAL REPORT WHAT ' S APPLIED
SCIENCES ?, 2016)In the Litoral region, specifically, there was a thermal increase as an
influence of the warming of the tropical Pacific sea surface, which persisted throughout
the year, these anomalies fluctuated from 0.5°C to 2.4°C. (INAMHI, 2016)as indicated
by the (IDEAM, 2011)These values are considered as a very high threat because the
average annual precipitation is in a range between 0 and 1000 (mm) and the average
annual temperature exceeds 24° C, in this regard several authors indicate that weather
conditions, such as high temperatures and low relative humidity, are determinants for
the generation and prolongation of large forest fires. (Moreno Rodríguez, José Manuel;
R. Urbieta, Itziar; Bedia, Joaquín; Gutiérrez, 2015)..
Fuels
The area is characterized by a forest, with an abundance of trees and shrubs that are
considered as heavy fuels due to their minimum height of 7 meters and diameter greater
than 1 cm (Table 4), as indicated by (Myers, 2006)As indicated by (Myers, 2006), these
types of fuels have a duration of up to 100 hours and are considered to be in a high
threat category due to their persistence and difficult liquidation, in addition, some fuels
contain certain volatile materials along with cellulose. These chemical substances, such
as oils, waxes and resins, make the fuel containing them available and can affect the linear
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intensity of the fire, the difficulty of liquidation and the speed of propagation, for example
trees such as muyuyo, carob and cauchillo.
Regarding the type of ecosystem can be considered as influenced by fire due to the range
that presents the climatic conditions in this forest and the type of existing species that
can respond positively to fire disturbances, example of them are some species of
Fabaceae family as stated in a study by (Trejo et al., 2019)in which they determine the
effect of fire on the trees of a tropical forest, indicating that some of the species that
adapted the most to the presence of fire were those belonging to the Fabaceae family
due to the characteristics of the trees that give them greater resistance to fire, such as
greater height and diameter; however, as there are less resistant species, they are
exposed ecosystems due to excessive burning.
Relief Factor
The topography of the area reflects the existence of a high hilly relief and represents up
to 70% of steep slopes, although medium slopes are also present. (IDEAM,
2011)considers a high threat when the percentage of slopes represents values between
25 and 75%, due to the fact that topographic characteristics such as steep slopes and
abrupt relief facilitate the spread of fire and hinder the effectiveness of extinguishing
tasks. (Ministry of Environment - Panama, 2015)..
Accessibility
Accessibility in this case is expressed as the ease with which the population can access
a particular place and generate fire outbreaks; the closer the place is to a road, the higher
the level of threat than those where access is more difficult, considering that it has two
types of accesses with a main road categorized as a very high threat and a secondary
road as a low threat. (IDEAM, 2011)Therefore, adequate management must be carried
out to control extrinsic factors derived from anthropic behavior, such as maintenance
and cleaning of fine or light combustible material, application of agricultural burning
schedules, implementation of conservation agriculture systems, as well as promoting
coordination between different entities, such as government agencies, fire departments,
agricultural organizations and local communities, to share information, resources and
coordinate fire prevention and control actions, among others.
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